Let's not over react to Notre Dame's 41-3 win over Miami as the Hurricanes have been awful all year. I really like Stanford despite their 617 yards allowed last week as they faced an Arizona team that really runs a different offense than any other team Stanford has faced. Bottom line Stanford won the game and put up 617 yards themselves giving their offense and QB confidence moving into a critical showdown against Notre Dame.
Bottom line this is strength vs. strength as both teams like to run the ball and both defenses have been dominant at stopping the run. It will come down to which QB can move the ball better and Stanford's TE style offense will give Notre Dame issues. I'm still not sold on Notre Dame's QB choice in Everett Gholston and Stanford is led by a Junior that has full control over his emotions, he is able to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage and avoid mistakes. Gholston is just not at that level right now to make changes. If you look back at the last two match ups since Brian Kelly took over for Notre Dame one thing has been consistent Stanford has shut down Notre Dames offense and have been able to run the ball. Now Notre Dame's defense is way better than it has been in the past, but they also have a lot of catching up to do. Stanford held Notre DAme to 6 drives of 8 yards or less last year and Notre Dame really has not run the ball well at home only 2.2 ypc. They faced a couple of good run defense in Purdue and Michigan in close games decided by 7 points or less. Stanford's defense is much better ranked 10th against the run from a ypc perspective. I also believe Stanford is the better overall team than both of those Big Ten Schools.
Notre Dame will have a hard time converting third downs as Stanford has held opponents to 23% on third down this year. That will force a lot of field goals and game ending drives resulting in a game that will absolutely in my opinion be decided by less than 7 points. Look for Stanford to come out throwing on first down with Nunes to catch Notre Dame off guard. It's something they've shown already this season.
Suddenly Utah State's wins don't look as impressive and their offense is no longer clicking. They open up in the WAC against San Jose State, a team flying way way under the radar and is off a bye.
Utah State is #1 in total defense in the WAC, but San Jose is #2 and San Jose is #1 in offense and they have played some good teams. Recently they dominated Navy's triple option defense holding them to 1.8 ypc and won 12-0 and this is a team that lost at Stanford despite holding them to 3.8 ypc by just 3 points and the reason was because of their 2 turnovers. Back at home led by their Jr QB David Fales who is completing nearly 75% of his passes I think they will be able to move the ball against Utah State defense that has not faced a team this season that will look to pass the ball. On average Utah State's defense has faced an average 79th passing offense and San Jose is 21st in the nation. Look out for Mackey Award nominee Ryan Otten who is having a great year and is one of several Seniors on this team.
As I mentioned San Jose is not all offense and this will be a bit of a coming out party for them. They currently rank 2nd in the nation in sacks and Utah State QB Chcukie Keeton could have major issues here running for his life especially since San Jose State is more prepared for this game and are 40th against the run and fresh off defending the triple option. Sr DE Travis Johnson is having a great year already.
3rd downs, my favorite stat as mentioned it just clarifies what the other stats say. Both teams are good on defense ranked in the top 25 with San Jose actually being a bit better and 4% better at home compared to Utah St on the road. Offensively San Jose is ranked 26th and is converting 10% more third downs than Utah State who is ranked 72nd. Utah State is also 102nd in penalties and 102nd in turnover margin per game while San Jose is +1 turnover per game at home and they have a kicker that's 100% on field goals while Utah St is only hitting 57% of their field goals. San Jose is just a more complete team and Utah State is still living off some of their early season success that suddenly does not look as good.
